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What is the possibility of you winning in Games. Is it Biased Or not?

Its no secret that carnivals exist to make moneyAnd to do this most effectively, they do a bunch of little tricksto make you overestimate your chances of winningin some cases to such an extentthat it’s basically a scam. So I spent a couple days coming downto this carnival and observing and collecting dataon all the games. So I’m now I’m going to tellyou exactly which games are the biggest ripoffs and the scientific reasons why.I even nancy drewed how much they actually payfor the prizes you can win. But there is hope…because I’ll alsoshow you some legitimate tricks on how to the most populargames and alongwith what happens when you show up to the carnival with your professional baseball playing buddywho happens to play for the Mets.Let’s get started!Any kind of legitimate investigation needs to start with solid dataas the foundation. So with the promise of unlimited churros,I had some friends secretly help me collect data on all 24games at the Carnival for a full day.

 Not only did we collect how how many times each game was played but we recorded how manytimes people actually won each game and what prize they won.And so the first observation was that based on our datais tht this relatively small parkthis place makes $20k/day just on their carnivalSo to help frame the rest of the observations,let’s divide the games into 3 groups. 1st,You’ve got your Random chance games-Games like these that don’t utilize any skills and are basicallyrolling a dice. 2nd you’ve got your Skill based gamesLike basketball shot or the milk bottle throw or the basket tossgame where if you bring some kind of skill or strategy to the tableyou can increases your chances of winning And the final category arethe games that are pretty much Impossible- These ones are borderlinescams. There are 3 games thatlots of people attempted and nobody won, and if they did winonce like in the case of the ladder climb it was for a very specific reason,which I’ll talk about later.So let’s start by talking about the random chance games. Calculatingyour chances of winning chances here is pretty straightforward. You just dividewinning outcomes by the total outcomesand you’ll get a percentage. So in this case there are about about 1600total cups and 160 winning cups.That’s about 10% chance or 1 in 10 throwswill win.

There are a ton of games similar tothis. But catch is they always use balls that are light weight and have a highcoefficient of restitution meaning they bounce really well.The makes it much less likely the ball will endwhere you originally aim it.To illustrate this point, think how much easier this game would be withbean bags which are heavier with and don’t bounce.Any imperfectionin your throw is magnified, which essentiallyrandomizes things. If you have no skills theseare the games you want to play. But don’t’ get too excitedbecause even when you win you lose.I did some investigative work and uncovered the sources they ordertheir prizes from and discovered even If you got luckyon your first throw that would cost you $1.50for a prize that that cost them 45 cents.But you usually won’t get it on your first tryand treating this as expected value problem it wouldtake you average(7/30) 5 tries to land in a yellow cup for a small prize which means you pay $7.50for something that costs 45 cents.In the case of the big prize by landing in the raregold cup it’s worse and would take an average of25 tries, which works out to $38for a prize that costs them $6.

The number of people we observed winning matched up well with thesestatistical predictions.Now let’s talk about theskill based games. One of the most popularthe basketball toss with 825the day we obseved. A standard 3 pointer isabout 24 feet back on a 10 foot rim. In this case however, the line is 28ft back on a rim11 feet high. Which is subtle but ifyou have a deadly 3 pointer lockedinto your muscle memory you will tend to miss short which isexactly what happened a bunch. The reason they always have all big sloped tarp in frontis so that someone can’t stand underneath the rim where they height differencewould be much more apparent.Here again though even if you go Steph Curryand sink your first $3 shot, you still lose 2.20 centsbecause this ball costs them 80 cents Here is another example of gettingyou to overestimate your chances of winning by making subtle changes by slanting the tablewhich will reduce the horizontal velocity afterthe bounce so even if you played this game all through collegeyour previous experience almost becomes a handicap.

This measure your pitch speed game is borderline fraudulentas their Radar gun registers about 15mph slow.I know this because I measured the distance and then filmed in high speedand counted the frames and this pitch was much closer to 84 mph.For the milk bottle game the only catch here is that the bottles are metalwhich makes them more stable and harder to knock down than a normal bottle that size.I’ve seen some carnivals where they are bottom weightedwhich would make them even more stable and thus less likely to tip.You can ask to hold it use the trickof balance it on your finger to determine where the center of mass is.They key to this game is hitting them right herewith a hard enough throw to introduce sufficient kinetic energybut don’t throw it too hard because we noticed those who threw their hardestusually compromised on accuracy.About 1 in 14 of people knocked them over on their first try.And then finally the basket toss game. The key here is tohave your first bounce hit on the front lip to reduce the kinetic energyenough so it doesn’t rebound out.About 1 in 10 people win this game according to our observations.And now this brings us to our final category of the near impossiblegames and there are three of them.

On this first one, the goalis to shoot out the red star with this automaticbb gun. So the best strategy is to basically shoota circle around the start to cut it out. Not onlyare the guns not accurate or precise but the bigger issue isthat you start out doing really well because there is enough surrounding paperso the bb will rip through the paper. But Newton’s3rd law tells us you can only push on something as hardas it can resist your push and so at the end there will be barelysupported pieces of the star that just move out of the wayoff the bb without building up enough stressto rip the paper. Out of 120 plays we sawno one win this one all day This ring bottle gameis also impossibly difficult. Again, it’s a lightweight objectthat is really bouncy to encourage randomnessbut the actual inner diameter of the ring is really closeto the outer diameter of the bottle. This means any throwbesides this perfect one, willsend it bouncing away instead of settling in on the bottle.

If you really want this bear I suggest going to Amazon and getting it for $47. I literally can’t even tell you how much money that wills save you because of the 840rings we saw thrown, none stayed on. Which bringsup a obvious rule of thumb, if you wantto have the feeling of winning a game, don’t play any game that offersreally big prizes. And for the final near impossiblegame let me reiterate that for a carnival owner the most lucrativegames are those which the customer overestimates their chances of success. No game is a better exampleof this than the ladder climb. There is a subtle issuewith this game that I think people realize, but don’t internalize the significance.The ladder converges to be supported on the wall by one pointinstead of two. If it was attached in two points it’s likecrawling across a bridgewhich is really easy.

 Let’s pretend this isyou and If you shrunk all the weight of your bodydown to the average location which we call the center of mass,which we’ll markwith this dot. Again, you know this is the spotbecause it balances perfectly. If you drawtwo imaginary lines connecting the diffrent support pointsand as long as your center of mass dot isit is impossible to fall off.But As soon as you center of mass is even a little bit out of the areaof supports you start to rotate and fall off.If you’ve ever bent over to pick something upyou actually know this fact whether you realize it or not.In this case the region of support is between the heeland the toes of your foot. When you reach over you willnaturally move your butt back to keep your center of massin between your support points. If you don’t believe metry picking something up standing against a wallso you can move your butt back, at the very moment your center of massmoves beyond your toes,you tip over. In the case of the ladder game even though it looks wide because of the ladder rungs, it’s only attachedat one point buteven though it looks wide because of the ladder rungsthat area of support reduces down to a line. SoSo if you don’t keep your center of mass directly above that lineyou will start to rotate and fall off. In other words, to win this gameyou basically need to crawl across a tightrope.

And you might think we’ll I can do a slack line so I can dothis but a slack line is actually much easier for 2 reasonsYou can flail your arms and legs out to adjustyour center of mass to keep it above the lineof support and your center of mass is higherup which makes you more stableIn the same way it’s easier to balance this umbrella when it’s extended vs. when collapsed.So while there are a few videos that say tricks like maintain three pointsof contact at all times, they’re basically useless becausekeeping your center of mass directly above a lineis just something you need get a feel for thattakes a lot of practice. But once you’ve had enough practice you this is the one game at thecarnival that is all skill. So you can win everytimeand clean them out. Unfortunately, the carnival owner knows this which is why it’sthe only game with this super lame caveat.So now that we were carnival experts, I called up my buddy Matt Winakerwho played baseball for Stanford and was just recently drafted to play for the New York MetsSo we could maximize the chance of winning any game relating to throwing So clearly Matt had deadly lock on any throwing gameBut basketball is more my game so to finish offthe day I decided to bring his ego back into checkAs it turns out, if you are a world class athlete in one sportyou are a really, really good athlete in all sports.So in conclusion, you should play the games if you think they’re funjust know that the odds are heavily stacked against so if youdon’t win it’s nbd unlike this dude who lost hislife savings playing carnival games.

And ifyour motivation is to gain the love and admiration of someonespecial by means of a stuffed animal you don’t need acarnival to do that. Amazon works just as well.“A little purchse for you ma lady”Why?I like to learn new stuff. I recently got a new camera butuser manuals are lame. So I went online to skillshare.comwho were also kind enough to support this video and followed along withmy camera as an expert axplained via videoall the different buttons and functions and It was super useful and way better than trying to read a black and white manual.They have a bunch of different courses ranging from photography to graphic design to marketingto even making videos like this.It’s less than $10/month and that gives you full accessto all of their courses. AND the First 300 people touse the link in the video desc. get their first 2 months free to try it out.So if you appreciate the work I put into these videos don’t give memoney, click the link in the desc. and go expand yourmind and learn something new. Thanks for watching.


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